Why Republicans Will Lose Big in 2022
There is a prevailing assumption among political punditry that Democrats are destined to lose the US House and possibly the US Senate next year. But about this I remain skeptical. One should not assume this to be a foregone conclusion simply based on past history. There are reasons to believe the Democrats will make gains in the House and the Senate — and that Republicans will lose big. Here are some reasons why.
1) Because Republicans believe they will lose.
… or at least they believe they very likely could. Why else would they be so feverishly rushing through voter suppression bills in 48 states in an obvious pique of desperation? It’s because they expect they will continue to endure losses of voters due to demographic shifts and their own traditional voters’ revulsion at their policies of evil intent (see #4). Republicans purport to enact these laws under the flimsy guise of protecting voting integrity, but of course all intelligent people know exactly why they are doing so — to rig the system to their advantage and thus maintain a system of minority-population rule.
Even Liz Cheney, who has been lauded as a hero because she drew her moral boundary at insurrection, is still supportive of voter suppression and won’t decry it. She knows that her party needs the assist to get over the finish line. Mitch McConnell, the most cravenly power-grabby politician of all time, supports these laws as well, which is almost evidence enough of their partisan bent. Knowing his behavior, he wouldn’t support these laws if they weren’t categorically pro-Republican and anti-Democrat.
2) Suppressed voters will refuse to be suppressed.
Related to the above, the voters that Republicans are so gung-ho to suppress will come out in army-like numbers to thwart efforts to suppress their votes. Democratic voters have enjoyed the sweet taste of victory by vanquishing Donald Trump to the dumpster of history (as president anyway). This was an invigorating, empowering feeling. They know they can beat Republicans if they come out to vote. This was proven in the runoff election in Georgia. Between the primary election on November 3 and the runoff election on January 5 — during which time Donald Trump tried to cancel their votes — the minority-race/Democratic vote swelled while the white/Republican vote sank.
Photo Credit: Sora Shimazaki at Pexels.com
3) Biden’s approval rating remains high and steady.
Trump never went above 48%. Biden has reached as high as 55% and hasn’t dipped below 51%. Thus he has been above water the entire time of his presidency, while Trump never was. In 2018 and 2020, presidential approval/disapproval matched closely the House popular vote.
Republican voters have many reasons to renounce Republicanism/Trumpism… while they have many reasons to support Biden and his party — for tackling the coronavirus pandemic head-on from day one… for returning dignity, ethics, morality, and compassion to the office of the presidency… and for endeavoring to govern for all Americans.
4) Evil is no good.
Republicans have gone in whole-hog on the culture of evil intent — And evil never wins ultimately. Their embrace of evil is demonstrated by no other reason than how fully they have embraced Trump and Trumpism. Few of the rest of us were quite aware how much Trump would be able to excite a huge bloc of voters (describe them however you will) to the ballot box.
And what does Trumpism represent? — The Big Lie… kids in Cages… no mercy on some types of immigrants (numerous nefarious executive orders regarding asylum)… suppressing or nullifying the votes of black and brown people (and white Democrats as well)… cruel disrespect of political opponents (from his opponents in the presidential primary to Hillary Clinton to Joe Biden)… acceptance of racism (Charlottesville)… insurrection against our own government (January 6)… betraying the country (Helsinki, Trump team meeting with Russians in Trump Tower)… weakening American institutions (a plethora of examples including disparaging the Intelligence Community, refusing to let his people testify before Congress)… obstruction of justice (ten instances at least, and offering pardons to keep people quiet)… and worst of all — facilitating the death of 600,000 Americans by minimizing the seriousness of the coronavirus pandemic… on purpose.
Adam Serwer crafted a popular piece in The Atlantic called “Cruelty is the Point”, in which he explains his viewpoint that many Trump voters enjoy and revel in the evil and “suffering of those they hate and fear”. I would say that his supposition has metastasized into a new philosophy: “Evil is the Point”. This is the mindset for those who continue to embrace the Trump ethos. They might abhor evil in their personal lives, but when it comes to politics and American policy: evil is fair game.
It is extremely disturbing that a substantial percentage of the country fully embraces such evil intent. In fact, the registrations of Republicans rose before the 2020 election. They witnessed all that Trump had done over four years and said, ‘Yes, we want more of this evil, hate, corruption, incompetence, and death.’
But in a broad sign of hope for America, many Republicans did their patriotic duty and rejected this surfeit of malfeasance and sick behavior in 2020 — enough to lose the election for Trump.
5) But the remaining Republican party has gotten Trumpier…
… and Trumpier. They even defend the abhorrent Trump-incited insurrection for goodness sake. The Trumpiest candidates will likely get chosen during the primary, and these candidates will be unpalatable to voters in the general election — I hope.
In 2020, the newly registered Republican voters mentioned above wanted to vote directly for Trump and his “policies”. Some will still vote in 2022 when Trump is not on the ballot, but many — significant numbers of them, I believe, will stay away from the polls because their immoral mafia don will not be a candidate — and no substitute will do. This is evidenced by the decline in Republican votes in the 2018 midterms and the 2021 Georgia runoffs.
This of course is great for Democrats… because when you add that to the Republican voters who have already shunned the Trump evil, this will be enough to cause Republicans to lose many general election contests, and thereby they will be prevented from regaining the House or the Senate.
But Here’s Why Republicans Might Not Lose Big…
Honestly, none of the above is possible if the Democrats don’t do their part. Democratic voters of many stripes, and many Republicans too, schlepped to the polls against many odds in some cases, to ensure that the scourge of Trump would end. Now Democratic elected leaders have to step up to match their vigor.
What Democratic leaders must do:
1) Democratic leaders need to coax, cajole, arm-twist, blackmail — whatever it takes — to persuade or force reluctant Democratic senators to kill or modify the filibuster so that voting rights legislation can be passed swiftly. This must include mandating that election certification must naturally follow the result of the election — and not simply the choice of partisan (read: corrupt Republican) election officials. However, any new voting rights laws may not be permanent due to the inevitable Supreme Court challenges that will be brought by Republicans. And the Supreme Court has shown time and time again their hostility to any changes to voting rules that impart even the slightest advantage to Democrats.
2) They must expand the Supreme Court to confirm upstanding jurists who are not committed to protecting the electoral advantage of Republicans. But if they don’t and the Supreme Court were to overturn any voting rights laws, hopefully it would take some time for the court cases to wend their way through the courts… hopefully after the 2022 elections at least. Fingers crossed.
3) Democrats must brand Republicans negatively every chance they get, and Republicans have made that easy. Democrats need to scream to the heavens everyday that Republicans are the party of fascism… They are the party of insurrection… They are the pro-coronavirus party… They are the party who doesn’t want to give you coronavirus economic relief… They are the party of voter suppression which harms not just the black and brown voters whom they care very little about, but many other types of Americans as well. Democrats need to call them out for being the party that constantly acts in bad faith and persistently obstructs instead of governing.
The perplexing part is why wouldn’t Democrats want to do this. If they do this, they likely wouldn’t have to worry about major electoral losses again — which is exactly what Republicans fear. Democratic voters are already a majority… The For The People Act and the John Lewis Act would eliminate most of the factors that provide Republicans their partisan advantage, such as gerrymandering, overly restrictive voting limitations, dark money, and the ability of partisan election boards to overturn elections.
Conclusion
Just the embrace of Trump itself is evidence of the ongoing corrupting of Republican politicians and voters over many years. At one point, it may have been debatable whether the Republican Party was actively engaged in evil intent… but now their support of Trump and his acolytes’ sheer criminality, corruption, and insurrection against our own government and the rule of law, reveals way too much about their intentions to run roughshod over the American way of life and the American experiment.
Yet minority-race voters and many white voters — both have to be acknowledged — saved us from the doom of another Trump term. I believe this surge of morally-minded voters will continue to march forth, and will likely prevent Republicans from reversing their losses of the House and Senate… if Democrats in federal office do their part to provide the legislative framework to assist them.